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Backtest · 5-year walk-forward

The numbers
behind the playbook.

The full strategy suite, simulated against five years of daily history across roughly two thousand US stocks. The same detectors that fire on a live scan, walked bar-by-bar to their realized exit. Win rate, R-multiple, profit factor, hold time, exit mix — every number a setup has earned the right to claim.

Trades simulated
1,899,103
Profitable strategies
18/23
Best profit factor
1.57
History window
2022–2026
autoresearch · empirical verdicts (holdout · robustness · permutation · Sharpe haircut)2026-07-03
Tuned 13 · Dead 6 · Inconclusive 4Top-300 by liquidity · 4y train + 12mo holdout · Net of $1.50 fee + 10 bps slippage
VCP Breakout
Momentum
Tuned · provisional
4.53
Holdout PF
61
Trades
p=1.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.54
Trend Pullback
Pullback
Tuned
2.10
Holdout PF
181
Trades
p=0.05 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.72
RSI Reversion
Mean Reversion
Empirically dead
1.67
Holdout PF
533
Trades
p=0.43 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.31
Bear Flag
Pullback
Empirically dead
0.67
Holdout PF
29
Trades
p=0.55 · r=0.00 · Sh=-0.44
RSI Overbought
Mean Reversion
Empirically dead
1.51
Holdout PF
512
Trades
p=1.00 · r=0.85 · Sh=+0.40
Swing Condor
Range-Bound
Empirically dead
1.72
Holdout PF
40
Trades
p=0.91 · r=0.92 · Sh=+0.36
Cup & Handle
Momentum
Inconclusive
0.45
Holdout PF
9
Trades
p=0.79 · r=1.00 · Sh=-0.50
Qullamaggie Breakout
Momentum
Inconclusive
2.21
Holdout PF
23
Trades
p=0.06 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.54
52-Week-High Proximity Pullback
Pullback
Tuned
2.01
Holdout PF
1056
Trades
p=0.00 · r=0.92 · Sh=+0.32
Power Earnings Gap
Momentum
Inconclusive
0.98
Holdout PF
28
Trades
p=0.40 · r=1.00 · Sh=-0.04
Trend Template Fresh-Pass
Momentum
Tuned
1.77
Holdout PF
1807
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.59
Frog-in-the-Pan Momentum
Momentum
Empirically dead
1.84
Holdout PF
88
Trades
p=0.34 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.46
Quality 12-1 Momentum
Momentum
Inconclusive
1.74
Holdout PF
49
Trades
p=0.43 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.43
MA Stack Confluence
Momentum
Tuned
2.31
Holdout PF
859
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.59
ADX Trend Momentum
Momentum
Tuned
2.55
Holdout PF
5588
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.38
Residual Momentum (Poor-Man's)
Momentum
Tuned
2.57
Holdout PF
3986
Trades
p=0.00 · r=0.96 · Sh=+0.45
Multi-Period Strength
Momentum
Tuned
2.62
Holdout PF
538
Trades
p=0.00 · r=0.92 · Sh=+0.72
Volume-Weighted Trend
Momentum
Tuned
2.15
Holdout PF
462
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.58
ROC Breakout
Momentum
Tuned
2.02
Holdout PF
2625
Trades
p=0.00 · r=0.92 · Sh=+0.48
Highest-High Breakout
Momentum
Tuned
2.76
Holdout PF
1075
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.48
ATR Stretch Reversion
Mean Reversion
Empirically dead
1.35
Holdout PF
1693
Trades
p=1.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.15
RSI(2) Leader Dip
Mean Reversion
Tuned
1.92
Holdout PF
1124
Trades
p=0.00 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.32
Snapback Z-Score
Mean Reversion
Tuned
1.83
Holdout PF
3216
Trades
p=0.01 · r=1.00 · Sh=+0.32

How to read this. Tuned strategies pass every anti-overfit gate strictly and ship with live-adopted parameters. Tuned · provisional passes robustness + holdout PF + Sharpe haircut but fails the permutation p-value gate (either marginally or because the detector's pre-gates exhaust the sweep filter and signal-vs-null can't be measured) — params are published for inspection; live-engine adoption waits for the next regime change or quarterly re-tune to promote to full Tuned. Dead strategies failed holdout — dropped from live picks by the recommender, kept here for transparency. Inconclusive means sample too thin or edge indistinguishable from random label assignment; registry defaults stay in effect until the next quarterly re-tune.

Metrics: PF = profit factor net of $1.50 fee + 10 bps slippage per trade. p = shuffle-returns permutation p-value (n=200) on holdout. r = robustness score (fraction of ±10% neighbor configs that also clear PF ≥ 1.0). Sh = annualized Sharpe of trade returns with multiple-testing haircut (`SR × 1 / sqrt(2 log N_trials)`, an informal approximation — see methodology).

full-universe aggregate · raw exits · sorted by profit factor desc · 23 strategies2026-07-04
BACKTEST · 5YUniverse ~2,000 · Realized exits · No fees / slippageMethodology
01
Cup & Handle
Momentum·3,582 trades
Win
29.9%
Avg R
+0.50R
PF
1.57
Hold
4d
24% · 2% · 69% · 5%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
02
Trend Pullback
Pullback·1,092 trades
Win
26.5%
Avg R
+0.33R
PF
1.45
Hold
2d
15% · 4% · 72% · 9%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
03
52-Week-High Proximity Pullback
Pullback·15,415 trades
Win
42.0%
Avg R
+0.18R
PF
1.33
Hold
14d
8% · 1% · 51% · 40%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
04
Highest-High Breakout
Momentum·36,728 trades
Win
46.5%
Avg R
+0.13R
PF
1.31
Hold
17d
15% · 1% · 42% · 42%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
05
Power Earnings Gap
Momentum·328 trades
Win
42.7%
Avg R
+0.15R
PF
1.31
Hold
8d
28% · 1% · 50% · 21%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
06
ADX Trend Momentum
Momentum·190,407 trades
Win
36.8%
Avg R
+0.16R
PF
1.27
Hold
13d
10% · 1% · 57% · 33%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
07
Residual Momentum (Poor-Man's)
Momentum·131,575 trades
Win
39.7%
Avg R
+0.14R
PF
1.26
Hold
12d
12% · 2% · 51% · 36%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
08
ROC Breakout
Momentum·120,823 trades
Win
32.3%
Avg R
+0.21R
PF
1.26
Hold
5d
19% · 2% · 64% · 15%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
09
Snapback Z-Score
Mean Reversion·124,882 trades
Win
50.0%
Avg R
+0.10R
PF
1.25
Hold
10d
7% · 1% · 29% · 64%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
10
Quality 12-1 Momentum
Momentum·217,217 trades
Win
33.5%
Avg R
+0.20R
PF
1.23
Hold
4d
29% · 3% · 64% · 3%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
11
RSI Reversion
Mean Reversion·30,398 trades
Win
51.2%
Avg R
+0.09R
PF
1.23
Hold
7d
14% · 1% · 25% · 61%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
12
Volume-Weighted Trend
Momentum·122,709 trades
Win
32.2%
Avg R
+0.18R
PF
1.22
Hold
5d
16% · 3% · 64% · 17%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
13
RSI(2) Leader Dip
Mean Reversion·189,123 trades
Win
49.8%
Avg R
+0.08R
PF
1.21
Hold
10d
7% · 1% · 25% · 67%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
14
Multi-Period Strength
Momentum·151,038 trades
Win
31.8%
Avg R
+0.16R
PF
1.21
Hold
5d
16% · 3% · 64% · 17%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
15
MA Stack Confluence
Momentum·102,531 trades
Win
35.1%
Avg R
+0.13R
PF
1.19
Hold
6d
12% · 3% · 59% · 26%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
16
ATR Stretch Reversion
Mean Reversion·146,981 trades
Win
51.0%
Avg R
+0.06R
PF
1.18
Hold
7d
8% · 0% · 18% · 73%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
17
Qullamaggie Breakout
Momentum·16,943 trades
Win
27.2%
Avg R
+0.11R
PF
1.10
Hold
4d
23% · 2% · 72% · 3%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
18
Frog-in-the-Pan Momentum
Momentum·206,175 trades
Win
32.8%
Avg R
+0.09R
PF
1.09
Hold
5d
28% · 3% · 65% · 4%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
19
Trend Template Fresh-Pass
Momentum·18,382 trades
Win
40.0%
Avg R
+0.13R
PF
0.99
Hold
2d
35% · 11% · 52% · 2%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
20
Swing Condor
Range-Bound·24,767 trades
Win
52.8%
Avg R
+0.03R
PF
0.97
Hold
2d
17% · 41% · 38% · 5%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
21
RSI Overbought
Mean Reversion·20,835 trades
Win
47.4%
Avg R
+0.01R
PF
0.95
Hold
7d
12% · 1% · 28% · 60%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
22
Bear Flag
Pullback·25,913 trades
Win
35.3%
Avg R
-0.16R
PF
0.69
Hold
3d
22% · 7% · 60% · 12%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
23
VCP Breakout
Momentum·1,259 trades
Win
36.9%
Avg R
+0.06R
PF
0.38
Hold
1d
42% · 38% · 18% · 2%
Target 1 · Target 2 · Stop · Timeout
Target 2Target 1StopTimeoutcomputed 2026-07-04
01

5 years, ~2,000 stocks

Daily history end-to-end. Same TS detectors that power live screening — no parallel backtest fork.

02

Realized walk-forward exits

Entries simulated at next-day open. Exits walk bar-by-bar until stop, target, or max hold elapses.

03

No fees, no slippage

Reported P&L is raw price difference. Survivorship-uncorrected — true historical edge is several points lower.

Full methodology — survivorship bias, regime approximation, sample-too-thin handling, and the raw JSON payload — is at /methodology/strategy-metrics. Past performance, simulated or actual, is not indicative of future results.

Live on EasySwing.trading

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Daily setups graded A+/A/B+/B/C, regime-gated to the current market, with built-in journaling and R-multiple tracking. Same detectors as the backtest.

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