{"schemaVersion":"1.0","formulaVersion":"13pt-v1","metric":"hit_rate","definition":"Percentage of backtested trade signals where the first or second price target was reached before the stop was hit, measured over the walk-forward hold window.","grades":[{"grade":"A+","hitRatePct":0.3869,"sampleSize":2298,"display":"38.7%"},{"grade":"A","hitRatePct":0.3944,"sampleSize":5119,"display":"39.4%"},{"grade":"B+","hitRatePct":0.2118,"sampleSize":1322,"display":"21.2%"},{"grade":"B","hitRatePct":null,"sampleSize":0,"display":"limited data"},{"grade":"C","hitRatePct":null,"sampleSize":0,"display":"limited data"}],"methodology":{"walkForward":true,"survivorshipCaveat":"Backtested on currently-listed symbols only. Stocks that delisted, went bankrupt, or were acquired during the test period are excluded — these tend to be losers. Reported hit rates are higher than what a live trader would have observed. Assume the true historical rate is several percentage points lower.","lookaheadCaveat":"Entry is simulated at the next trading day's open after the signal fires, not the signal bar's close. The engine sees only data up to and including the current bar — no future data is used. No slippage, commissions, or market impact are modeled.","gradeExpectancyNote":"Grade reflects expected R-multiple (reward-to-risk ratio), not raw hit rate. A (39.4%) and A+ (38.7%) are nearly identical in hit rate because both fire on high-confluence setups — A slightly edges A+ in frequency. B+ (21.2%) has a lower hit rate but can still be positive-expectancy at wider R-multiples. Hit rate alone does not determine grade; expectancy (hit rate × avg reward ÷ avg risk) does.","methodologyUrl":"/methodology","metricsMethodologyUrl":"/methodology/strategy-metrics","backtestRange":{"from":"2021-05-17","to":"2026-05-16"}},"computedAt":"2026-05-16"}